1. Five9 (FIVN)

Current price: ~$16.07 | Market cap: ~$1.31B | 52-week range: $15.54 – $31.78

Setup

FIVN is down ~50% from its 52-week high despite reporting record full-year 2025 revenue of $1.1B and crossing $100M in AI ARR — a milestone that represents ~41% YoY growth in enterprise AI revenue. A new AI-focused CEO was installed in Q4 2025, and the company issued 2026 guidance of $1.247B–$1.261B revenue with 24%+ adjusted EBITDA margin, a material step-up. The stock is trading at roughly 1.0x forward revenue — near trough multiples historically reserved for no-growth businesses, not one guiding 13–14% top-line growth with a nascent AI upsell engine.

Catalyst

(1) Q1 2026 earnings (expected May 2026) — first full quarter under new AI-focused CEO with investor day likely, a re-rating event if AI ARR acceleration continues; (2) strategic M&A optionality remains live — a 2,115% call option surge in January 2026 reignited acquisition speculation, with Salesforce and Google cited as logical acquirers needing "last-mile" CX AI infrastructure; (3) agentic CX deployments ramping in contact center deals, with AI bookings exceeding 20% of enterprise new ACV.

Risk

Revenue growth is decelerating toward single digits on the legacy telephony/CCaaS base; if enterprise AI deals take longer to ramp than guided, or if Salesforce/Genesys/Amazon Connect continue gaining share, 2026 consensus could be too high. Adjusted gross margin dipped 40bps YoY in Q4 2025 — margin expansion thesis is not yet proven at scale.

Valuation

~1.0x EV/forward revenue (2026E ~$1.25B). Peer CCaaS and customer engagement platforms (Genesys, NICE, Sprinklr) trade at 2–4x revenue in private/comparable transactions. Even a re-rating to 1.5x revenue implies ~50% upside. Non-GAAP EBITDA margin guided at 24%+ — implying ~$300M+ EBITDA on 2026 revenue; at 5x EBITDA the stock is nearly 3x current price.

2. Amplitude (AMPL)

Current price: ~$6.76 | Market cap: ~$750M | EV: ~$720M | 52-week performance: -41%

Setup

Amplitude is a product analytics platform pivoting aggressively into AI-powered behavioral intelligence — a category expanding as enterprises shift from BI dashboards to real-time agentic workflows. Q4 2025 revenue grew 17% YoY to $91.4M; ARR reached $366M (+17% YoY); NRR improved to above 105% from 100% a year prior — a rare NRR re-acceleration signal. Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) grew 35% YoY to $417.7M, well ahead of revenue growth, indicating strong forward bookings. The company authorized a $100M buyback in February 2026 — substantial at ~13% of market cap — signaling management's view that the stock is meaningfully undervalued. The stock trades at sub-2x EV/forward revenue, one of the cheapest SaaS names with accelerating growth and positive FCF ($23.5M in FY2025).

Catalyst

(1) Q1 2026 earnings (expected May 2026) — if revenue guidance of $390M–$398M (+15% FY2026) proves conservative given RPO acceleration, the stock can re-rate; (2) AI agent suite launched June 2025 is now showing up in retention and expansion metrics — any formal "AI SKU" revenue disclosure would be a new valuation hook; (3) $100M buyback execution could tighten float; (4) Wall Street consensus is muted (14% growth estimate), leaving room for a beat-and-raise.

Risk

Non-GAAP operating margin guided at only 1–3% for FY2026 — Amplitude is not yet a margin-inflection story in the traditional EBITDA sense; the path to 20%+ margins is multi-year and depends on continued headcount discipline. Competitive pressure from Mixpanel, Heap (acquired by Contentsquare), and internal analytics built on BigQuery/Snowflake AI Studio remains acute.

Valuation

~$720M EV / $394M revenue midpoint = ~1.8x EV/forward revenue. Peer product analytics / data experience platforms trade at 3–5x when growing >15% with positive FCF. At 3x forward revenue, fair value is ~$13–14/share vs current ~$6.76 — 90%+ upside. Strong Buy consensus from 12 analysts; average price target $13.50.

3. Braze (BRZE)

Current price: ~$20.90 | Market cap: ~$2.03B | 52-week performance: ~-40% from highs

Setup

Braze reported Q4 FY2026 results on March 24, 2026 (literally this week) and the stock surged ~16–24% in after-hours on a top-line beat and substantially above-consensus FY2027 guidance. Q4 revenue was $205.2M (+28% YoY), above the $198M consensus. More importantly, the company guided FY2027 revenue of $884M–$889M (midpoint $886.5M vs. street at $858M — a ~3% beat on forward guidance) and committed to 400bps of operating margin improvement, targeting 8% non-GAAP operating margin for FY2027 — this is the margin inflection the bears said would never come. Braze is the leading customer engagement platform (mobile-first, cross-channel orchestration) competing with Salesforce Marketing Cloud and Adobe Journey Optimizer at a fraction of their cost and with native AI capabilities. The earnings reaction shows the stock has been pricing in failure; the actual business is accelerating.

Catalyst

(1) FY2027 guidance execution — if Braze hits 400bps margin expansion while sustaining 25%+ revenue growth, the Rule of 40 score climbs toward 33–35, a material re-rating level; (2) Agentic AI use cases in customer journey automation are an emerging upsell — Braze's real-time data architecture is purpose-built for this vs. legacy batch-processing competitors; (3) Post-earnings re-initiation of coverage likely from several sell-side firms that had gone neutral.

Risk

Gross margin compression is concerning — non-GAAP gross margin fell 270bps YoY in Q4 to 67.2%, attributed to scaling messaging/hosting costs. If this trend continues, the margin improvement story relies entirely on operating leverage, not gross margin expansion. Enterprise deal cycles remain long; SMB exposure could be a drag if macro softens. Stock-based comp remains elevated.

Valuation

~$2.03B market cap on $793M FY2026 revenue = ~2.3x EV/revenue (accounting for net cash). FY2027E $886M revenue at 3.5x would imply ~$3.1B market cap, ~55% upside. Peer cross-channel engagement platforms (Klaviyo, Salesforce Marketing) trade at 5–8x. Braze is structurally discounted and the earnings print suggests the discount is excessive.

4. Qualys (QLYS)

Current price: ~$98 | Market cap: ~$3.3B | 52-week range: $85 – $155

Setup

Qualys is a profitable, cash-generative cybersecurity/vulnerability management platform that is misunderstood by the market as a no-growth legacy vendor. The reality: FY2025 revenue grew 10% to $669M with 47% adjusted EBITDA margins and 40%+ FCF margins — a cash machine by any measure. The stock is down ~26% over the past year after soft 2026 guidance (7–8% growth, $717M–$725M) disappointed a market expecting acceleration. However, the sell-off has created a value trap narrative that misses the setup: Qualys announced a $200M incremental buyback (total program now $1.6B), launched an Agentic AI Risk platform and the Enterprise ThreatScan Management (ETM) product, and is building a partner-led federal vertical. At 14x earnings and ~5x revenue on a company with 47% EBITDA margins, the stock is pricing in permanent stagnation.

Catalyst

(1) ETM (Enterprise ThreatScan Management) ramp — the new platform targets a materially larger TAM than legacy VMDR and could drive revenue re-acceleration in H2 2026; (2) $200M buyback execution at depressed prices is immediate EPS-accretive, potentially 5–8% accretive over 12 months; (3) Federal vertical expansion — if Qualys wins any material government contracts through its new partner-led go-to-market, street estimates are too low; (4) M&A premium: at $3.3B market cap and generating $300M+ FCF annually, this is a private equity leveraged buyout candidate.

Risk

Revenue growth at 7–8% is below the 15% screen threshold — this is a value/margin story, not a growth story. The core VMDR product faces intensifying competition from Wiz, Tenable, and Rapid7, all of which have more aggressive AI narratives. If ETM adoption is slower than expected, the stock could continue to drift lower or face multiple compression if the broader software sector de-rates.

Valuation

~$3.3B market cap / ~$720M FY2026E revenue = ~4.6x EV/revenue. At 47% EBITDA margins (~$340M EBITDA), EV/EBITDA is roughly 9–10x — exceptionally cheap for software. Tenable trades at ~6x revenue with lower margins. Rapid7 trades at 4–5x with negative EBITDA. On a pure FCF yield basis (~9% on market cap), Qualys screens as one of the cheapest quality software stocks available.

5. SoundHound AI (SOUN)

Current price: ~$7.00 | Market cap: ~$2.6B | 52-week performance: -70% from highs; -30% YTD 2026

Setup

SoundHound is the most speculative name on this screen but fits the margin inflection profile precisely: Q4 2025 revenue grew 59% YoY to $55.1M; adjusted gross margins expanded 800bps to 60.5%; adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed to -$7.4M from -$16.8M a year prior; and the company issued 2026 revenue guidance of $225M–$260M (street was ~$200M — a significant beat-and-raise). SoundHound is a pure-play conversational AI platform with deep penetration in automotive (Stellantis, Honda), QSR (White Castle, Sonic), and healthcare verticals — end markets where voice AI agents are an operational necessity, not a discretionary upgrade. The company holds $248M in cash with zero debt, providing a 2+ year runway to profitability. Unveiled a new multimodal AI platform at NVIDIA GTC 2026 in March.

Catalyst

(1) 2026 revenue execution — if SoundHound delivers at the $240M+ range vs. street's prior $200M expectation, the stock can sustain a 10–12x EV/revenue re-rating; (2) Multimodal AI platform launch at NVIDIA GTC (March 2026) is a product cycle catalyst that could drive new enterprise wins; (3) Automotive and QSR deployment waves — contract wins with Tier 1 auto OEMs or major QSR chains in H1 2026 would be material; (4) Path to EBITDA positive now within reach in 2026/2027 — each quarter of loss narrowing tightens the discount.

Risk

This is the highest-risk name on the screen. Stock-based compensation of $80.6M is more than 4x the adjusted EBITDA loss — GAAP losses are severe and will persist. The $2.6B market cap implies ~10x 2026E revenue on a company still losing money; if revenue guidance is missed by any meaningful amount, the stock can retrace sharply. Competition from large tech (Google, Amazon, Apple, OpenAI) in voice/conversational AI is existential-level.

Valuation

~$2.6B market cap, ~$248M cash → EV ~$2.35B / FY2026E $242M revenue midpoint = ~9.7x EV/revenue. Elevated but defensible if growth sustains at 50%+ and margin trajectory continues. A deceleration to 30–35% growth would compress the multiple to 5–6x, implying 40–50% downside.

6. Twilio (TWLO) — Reference Only

Current price: ~$127 | Market cap: ~$20B | Notes: Above $5B cap screen threshold — included as macro context / sector read-through

Setup (for reference only)

Twilio reported Q4 2025 revenue of $1.37B (+14.3% YoY), non-GAAP operating margin of 18.7% (+220bps YoY), FCF of $256M (18.7% margin), and issued 2026 non-GAAP operating income guidance of $1.04B–$1.06B. Fresh Buy analyst upgrades followed a KPN Netherlands RCS partnership announcement. TWLO sits above the market cap screen at ~$20B, but it provides important context: CCaaS/CPaaS with AI messaging upsell is a re-rating story, and Five9 (FIVN) — at 1/15th of Twilio's market cap — is participating in the same enterprise AI communication TAM with far more upside leverage.